Webinar: cash flow forecasting and predictive analytics in illiquid markets

Following the publication of “Takahashi–Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations” in The Journal of Portfolio Management, CFA Society Boston hosted a webinar featuring authors Alex Billias and Sam Holt, COO and Principal at Bella, to discuss challenges in liquidity modeling. They explored the strengths and limitations of the industry’s traditional forecasting model, Takahashi-Alexander, before introducing their novel approach of simulating future cash flows using historical data. The webinar explores how the new method builds on the Takahashi-Alexander model and has various applications across the industry.

Learn how Bella models liquidity and pacing for institutional portfolios.

Authors

  • Alex Billias, Bella Private Markets

    Alex Billias is Partner and Chief Operating Officer of Bella Private Markets, responsible for the execution and delivery of the firm's engagements and for its strategic direction. He leads Bella's development of quantitative tooling, including Monte Carlo simulation software for modeling portfolio cash flows and the firm's performance benchmarking solutions. His project work spans research into the representation and performance of diverse-owned firms as well as strategic consulting for global private equity and venture capital firms. He is a CFA charterholder.

  • Sam Holt, Bella Private Markets

    Sam Holt is a Principal and Director of Client Engagement at Bella Private Markets. His research centers on performance analysis and impact measurement, with a particular focus on combining qualitative and quantitative methods to produce decision-grade insight for institutional clients. He is a CFA charter holder.