Beyond the blind pool: how private asset-backed structured products reshape risk and return
Private asset-backed structured products — particularly collateralized fund obligations (CFOs) — transform portfolios of private assets into securities with distinct risk-return profiles. We examine how these structures approach diversification, tranching, cash flow timing, and regulatory capital, and what their rise means for portfolio construction.
What interim valuations actually tell you
Distributions have been stuck near 14 to 15 percent of NAV since late 2022, and LPs are questioning the marks they hold. New NBER research on 8,331 buyout and 6,822 venture investments finds that how a manager reports a valuation — how often it goes stale, how often it is marked down — predicts both weaker returns and slower exits, independent of the headline multiple.
Forecasting the future: how simulation models are transforming private market strategy
Private market investing is fundamentally about the future. Capital is committed today in anticipation of cash flows, valuations, and outcomes that may unfold over a decade or more. Yet for decades, the tools used to guide these decisions have remained anchored in the past.
Josh Lerner featured on CAIA’s Educational Alpha podcast
Joining CAIA Association CEO Bill Kelly, Josh Lerner kicked off season two of CAIA’s Educational Alpha podcast. Covering private equity topics from commitment strategies to generative AI’s place in private markets, Josh and Bill touch on a number of important questions throughout the episode. Josh also covers industry breakthroughs including advances in cash flow forecasting […]
Private Equity Findings Issue 20
Bella Private Markets collaborated with the Coller Research Institute to produce the milestone twentieth issue of Private Equity Findings, a publication that curates the most important cutting-edge academic research on private equity and brings together leading practitioners to discuss its implications. For this special issue, PE Findings spoke to Josh Lerner, Steven Kaplan, and Antoinette […]
Webinar: AAPI representation in asset management
In collaboration with the Association of Asian American Investment Managers (AAAIM), Bella COO Alex Billias presented research findings alongside Mark Okada, Co-Founder and CEO of Sycamore Tree Capital Partners during a recent webinar. The research explores the representation of Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPIs) in asset management and was detailed in two reports released […]
Understanding performance benchmarking
One of the most vexing questions in private equity is the assessment of investment returns. To extract a meaningful answer regarding its performance, a private equity group must make a number of decisions about methodology and the inclusion and exclusion of data—decisions that limited partners and consultants alike often second-guess. One might think that the […]
Webinar: cash flow forecasting and predictive analytics in illiquid markets
Following the publication of “Takahashi–Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations” in The Journal of Portfolio Management, CFA Society Boston hosted a webinar featuring authors Alex Billias and Sam Holt, COO and Principal at Bella, to discuss challenges in liquidity modeling. They explored the strengths and limitations of the industry’s traditional forecasting […]
AAPI representation in asset management
The Association of Asian American Investment Managers (AAAIM) and Bella Private Markets recently collaborated on a new study exploring the representation of Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPIs) in asset management. The first report focuses on attrition of AAPIs as individuals advance through the career funnel and female AAPI representation across asset classes. The second […]
Introducing a new model for forecasting PE portfolio outcomes
Included in the July 2023 issue of The Journal of Portfolio Management, our paper “Takahashi–Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations” introduces a new approach to cash flow forecasting. Takahashi–Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical SimulationsDawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner, and TzuHwan Seet Abstract: In 2001, […]